Crane operators at the Port of Los Angeles hummed through March, stacking 752,520 TEUs amid a storm of tariffs and skyrocketing diesel prices.
That’s down just 3% from last year—impressive, really, when you consider Asia’s Lunar New Year chaos triggered 17 blank sailings, stranding cargo on the high seas. Imports held steady at 380,733 TEUs, off only 1% year-on-year, while exports jumped 7% to 132,129 TEUs. Q1 totals? 2,388,843 TEUs, 5% below last year’s pre-tariff frenzy but bang on the five-year average. Stable demand, right there in the numbers.
But here’s the thing—empty containers plunged 11% to 239,658 TEUs. That’s a red flag. Empties usually spike before peak import season, as retailers gear up. Officials are watching this like hawks; softening consumer vibes could be creeping in.
“The result comes on the back of Lunar New Year disruptions in Asia, which led to 17 blank sailings,” said Executive Director Gene Seroka. “Even so, volumes were only 3% lower than March last year.”
Seroka’s got a point. Resilience shines through. Yet, zoom out, and the port’s a microcosm of bigger fractures.
Why Is Port of LA Throughput Holding Up in March?
Look, April’s shaping up stronger—tracking data shows a late-March surge in arrivals, with forecasts nearing 800,000 TEUs. Retailers restocking for spring and summer? Makes sense. But don’t pop the champagne yet.
Trump’s 10% global tariff, slapped on in late February, hangs over everything like a storm cloud. Legal challenges bubble in the U.S. Court of International Trade; a ruling’s due soon. Importers are frozen, wondering if rates jump to 15% as whispered in White House halls. Remember 2018? Those pre-tariff rushes juiced volumes then crushed them later—echoes here, with Q1 already softer.
Energy’s the silent killer, though. Diesel’s over $7 a gallon in LA, flirting with $8. Truckers—mostly small outfits—can’t swallow that. Iran’s mess drives it, squeezing every drayage mile. Jones Act waiver? Meant to let foreign ships haul U.S. petroleum. So far? Crickets. No uptick in movements.
Agriculture bleeds too. Farmers face diesel and fertilizer spikes, while exports lag. Soybeans? China pivoted to Brazil and Argentina post-trade deal hype—long contracts lock that in, leaving U.S. growers sidelined. California’s nuts—almonds, walnuts, pistachios—hit the same wall as buyers reshore or diversify.
Will Rising Energy Costs Cripple West Coast Ports?
Absolutely could. Trucking’s the artery; clog it with $8 diesel, and throughput grinds down. Port of LA’s no outlier—similar pressures grip Long Beach, Oakland. We’ve seen this before: 2022’s fuel spikes slashed margins, idled rigs. Bold call: if diesel sticks above $6 through Q3, expect 10-15% drayage delays, rippling to rail and warehouse bottlenecks.
That’s my unique angle—the historical parallel to 2008’s oil shock, when Brent crude at $147/barrel tanked volumes 20% YoY. Ports adapted then with efficiency plays; today’s tariff overlay makes it uglier. Corporate spin from Seroka emphasizes resilience—fair, but it glosses the fragility. Empty drops aren’t “monitoring closely”; they’re a demand warning.
Resilience? Sure, operationally. But strategy-wise, betting on April rebounds ignores the macro vise. Trade flows shifting—China’s supplier swap isn’t reversing soon. Energy waivers flopping? Tells you policy’s lagging reality.
And policy uncertainty? It’s poison. Importers hedge by front-loading, but with court rulings pending, who’s biting? White House tariff threats amp the chaos. Port officials preach stability—data backs short-term grit—but longer view? Challenging, as the release admits, yet understated.
Zoom to the farm belt: higher inputs crush margins, exports evaporate. Brazil’s soybean dominance? U.S. lost 30% market share since 2018; tariffs won’t flip that overnight. California’s nut exports—$6B annually—face retaliatory risks if rates escalate.
So, what’s the play? Ports push green tech, zero-emission trucks (LA’s got federal bucks for that). But near-term, it’s pain. Q2 might hit 2.4M TEUs if arrivals hold—but one tariff hike, one Iran flare-up, and it’s back to 2023 lows.
This isn’t hype; it’s math. Volumes align with averages, but headwinds compound. Watch empties. Watch diesel. Watch the courts.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What was Port of LA’s March throughput?
752,520 TEUs total—imports down 1%, exports up 7%, but empties fell 11%.
How are tariffs affecting Port of LA?
Trump’s 10% global tariff (potentially 15%) is stalling imports; legal challenges loom, echoing 2018 rushes and busts.
Why are diesel prices so high at Port of LA?
Iran conflict pushed LA diesel over $7/gallon, hammering truckers; Jones Act waiver hasn’t helped yet.
